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Population shifts and the future of stroke: forecasts of the future burden of stroke
Author(s) -
Howard George,
Goff David C.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
annals of the new york academy of sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.712
H-Index - 248
eISSN - 1749-6632
pISSN - 0077-8923
DOI - 10.1111/j.1749-6632.2012.06665.x
Subject(s) - stroke (engine) , census , ethnic group , incidence (geometry) , demography , population , medicine , race (biology) , distribution (mathematics) , geography , gerontology , environmental health , political science , engineering , mechanical engineering , physics , botany , optics , sociology , law , biology , mathematical analysis , mathematics
Population distribution estimates by age and race/ethnicity from the U.S. Census Bureau for the years 2010 and 2050 were combined with estimates of stroke incidence from population‐based surveillance studies to forecast the distribution of incident stroke cases for the years 2010 and 2050. Over these 40 years, the number of incident strokes will more than double, with the majority of the increase among the elderly (age 75+) and minority groups (particularly Hispanics). These increases are likely to present major logistical, scientific, and ethnical issues in the near future.