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The Application of Probabilistic Scenario Analysis for Risk Assessment of Animal Health in International Trade
Author(s) -
AHL A. S.
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
annals of the new york academy of sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.712
H-Index - 248
eISSN - 1749-6632
pISSN - 0077-8923
DOI - 10.1111/j.1749-6632.1996.tb53533.x
Subject(s) - hazard , event (particle physics) , risk analysis (engineering) , computer science , hazard analysis , event tree , risk assessment , probabilistic logic , node (physics) , fault tree analysis , medicine , engineering , computer security , reliability engineering , artificial intelligence , chemistry , physics , organic chemistry , structural engineering , quantum mechanics
Probabilistic scenario analysis (PSA) is a method of risk assessment that has had wide usage in many fields, including engineering, nuclear safety, and financial analysis. It is fast becoming the "gold standard" for risk assessment in many fields, including human health and the environment. It has been successfully applied in animal and plant health issues as well. PSA begins with the identification of a hazard and the development of a step-by-step scenario from some initiating event to the end point at which the hazard occurs. In PSA, the pathway leading to the end point is outlined by a model, called an event tree. Each step leading to the occurrence of the hazard is carefully outlined, called the node on the event tree. At each of these nodes, the probability of the event leading to the end point (hazard occurrence) is evaluated. The evaluation of the probability at each node may be qualitative or quantitative. The evidence used may come from standard epidemiological studies. The model can also accommodate expert opinion, anecdotal evidence, or any other information that can be verified that is pertinent to the event leading to hazard occurrence. The PSA is also quite flexible for it can be quickly revised when new data become available. With careful statement of the evidence and linkage back to bibliographic or other sources, it can provide a transparent, flexible, well-documented approach to risk assessment for animal health. Risk assessment along with regionalization is the key to healthy national herds and free international trade.