Premium
Global potential distribution of an invasive species, the yellow crazy ant ( Anoplolepis gracilipes ) under climate change
Author(s) -
CHEN Youhua
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
integrative zoology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.904
H-Index - 34
ISSN - 1749-4877
DOI - 10.1111/j.1749-4877.2008.00095.x
Subject(s) - ecology , climate change , environmental niche modelling , range (aeronautics) , species distribution , invasive species , niche , distribution (mathematics) , ecological niche , biology , global warming , habitat , mathematical analysis , materials science , mathematics , composite material
Changes to the Earth's climate may affect the distribution of countless species. Understanding the potential distribution of known invasive species under an altered climate is vital to predicting impacts and developing management policy. The present study employs ecological niche modeling to construct the global potential distribution range of the yellow crazy ant ( Anoplolepis gracilipes ) using past, current and future climate scenarios. Three modeling algorithms, GARP, BioClim and Environmental Distance, were used in a comparative analysis. Output from the models suggest firstly that this insect originated from south Asia, expanded into Europe and then into Afrotropical regions, after which it formed its current distribution. Second, the invasive risk of A. gracilipes under future climatic change scenarios will become greater because of an extension of suitable environmental conditions in higher latitudes. Third, when compared to the GARP model, BioClim and Environmental Distance models were better at modeling a species' ancestral distribution. These findings are discussed in light of the predictive accuracy of these models.