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China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression: The Conflicted Emergence of the RMB as an International Currency
Author(s) -
McKin Ronald,
Schnabl Gunther
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
china and world economy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.815
H-Index - 28
eISSN - 1749-124X
pISSN - 1671-2234
DOI - 10.1111/j.1749-124x.2014.12066.x
Subject(s) - renminbi , interest rate , exchange rate , liberian dollar , financial repression , economics , currency , monetary economics , international economics , china , financial market , balance of payments , finance , law , political science
Abstract Instability in the world dollar standard, as most recently manifested in the US Federal Reserve's near‐zero interest rate policy, has caused consternation in emerging markets with naturally higher interest rates. China has been provoked into speeding RMB “internationalization”; that is, opening up domestic financial markets to reduce its dependence on the US dollar for invoicing trade and making international payments. However, despite rapid percentage growth in offshore financial markets in RMB, the Chinese authorities are essentially trapped into maintaining exchange controls (reinforced by financial repression in domestic interest rates) to avoid an avalanche of foreign capital inflows that would threaten inflation and asset price bubbles by driving nominal interest rates on RMB assets down further. Because a floating (appreciating) exchange rate could attract even more hot money inflows, the People's Bank of China should focus on keeping the yuan/dollar rate stable so as to encourage naturally high wage increases to help balance China's international competitiveness. However, further internationalization of the RMB, as with the proposed Shanghai pilot free trade zone, is best deferred until world interest rates rise to more normal levels.