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MULTISITE MARK‐RECAPTURE FOR CETACEANS: POPULATION ESTIMATES WITH BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING
Author(s) -
Durban J. W.,
Elston D. A.,
Ellifrit D. K.,
Dickson E.,
Hammond P. S.,
Thompson P. M.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
marine mammal science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.723
H-Index - 78
eISSN - 1748-7692
pISSN - 0824-0469
DOI - 10.1111/j.1748-7692.2005.tb01209.x
Subject(s) - mark and recapture , markov chain monte carlo , bayesian probability , population , statistics , bayesian inference , range (aeronautics) , population size , geography , population model , inference , markov chain , contingency table , computer science , econometrics , mathematics , artificial intelligence , demography , engineering , sociology , aerospace engineering
A bstract Mark‐recapture techniques are widely used to estimate the size of wildlife populations. However, in cetacean photo‐identification studies, it is often impractical to sample across the entire range of the population. Consequently, negatively biased population estimates can result when large portions of a population are unavailable for photographic capture. To overcome this problem, we propose that individuals be sampled from a number of discrete sites located throughout the population's range. The recapture of individuals between sites can then be presented in a simple contingency table, where the cells refer to discrete categories formed by combinations of the study sites. We present a Bayesian framework for fitting a suite of log‐linear models to these data, with each model representing a different hypothesis about dependence between sites. Modeling dependence facilitates the analysis of opportunistic photo‐identification data from study sites located due to convenience rather than by design. Because inference about population size is sensitive to model choice, we use Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches to estimate posterior model probabilities, and base inference on a model‐averaged estimate of population size. We demonstrate this method in the analysis of photographic mark‐recapture data for bottlenose dolphins from three coastal sites around NE Scotland.