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Long‐term Forecast of the Demographic Transition in Japan and Asia
Author(s) -
KOMINE Takao,
KABE Shigesaburo
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
asian economic policy review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.58
H-Index - 20
eISSN - 1748-3131
pISSN - 1832-8105
DOI - 10.1111/j.1748-3131.2009.01103.x
Subject(s) - china , economics , east asia , development economics , demographic transition , witness , social security , voting , demographic economics , economic growth , geography , political science , population , demography , fertility , market economy , archaeology , sociology , politics , law
The demographic structure of Asia is expected to change rapidly from around 2020 up to around 2050. Following Japan, which is already at an advanced stage of aging and birthrate decline, China, South Korea, Thailand, and Singapore will also witness a further decline in their birthrates and an aging of their populations. Next in line will be the remaining countries of the Association of South‐East Asian Nations as well as India. Such changes, accompanied by a decline in the labor force, will not only adversely affect economic growth, but also have a major impact on voting structures, savings rates, and social security systems. Moreover, the process of demographic aging in Asia will be faster than in Japan, and its extent will be substantial, both of which exacerbates the negative effects. On positive side, these trends will give rise to the emergence of new markets.