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Uncertainty in climate change impacts on streamflow in B e R iver C atchment, V ietnam
Author(s) -
Khoi Dao Nguyen,
Suetsugi Tadashi
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
water and environment journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.437
H-Index - 37
eISSN - 1747-6593
pISSN - 1747-6585
DOI - 10.1111/j.1747-6593.2012.00314.x
Subject(s) - streamflow , gcm transcription factors , climatology , environmental science , climate change , atmospheric sciences , general circulation model , physics , biology , geography , ecology , drainage basin , geology , cartography
This paper focuses on the uncertainty in climate change impacts on streamflow in B e R iver C atchment. Uncertainty associated with GCM structure from a subset of CMIP 3 ( CCCMA CGCM 3.1, CSIRO Mk 30, IPSL CM 4, MPI ECHAM 5, NCAR CCSM 3.0, UKMO HadGEM 1, and UKMO HadCM 3), SRES emission scenarios ( A 1 B , A 2, B 1, and B 2), and prescribed increases in global mean temperature (0.5°C to 6°C) using SWAT model is investigated. For prescribed warming scenarios using HadCM 3, linear decreases in mean annual streamflow range from 3.1 to 16.7%. Differences in projected annual streamflow between SRES emission scenarios using HadCM 3 are small (−5.6% to −4.6%). Under the A 1 B scenario and 2°C increase in global mean temperature using seven GCMs , there is substantial disparity, by −2.9–25.5% and −8.3–19.1%, respectively. It is generally reasonable to conclude that GCM structure‐related uncertainty is greater than that associated with the emission scenarios and climate sensitivity.