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BUSINESS CONTRACTIONS AND INCUMBENT PARTY LOSSES OF THE PRESIDENCY: 1864–1932
Author(s) -
Lynch G. Patrick
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
southeastern political review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1747-1346
pISSN - 0730-2177
DOI - 10.1111/j.1747-1346.1995.tb00072.x
Subject(s) - presidency , presidential system , sample (material) , business cycle , political science , aggregate (composite) , simple (philosophy) , simple linear regression , economics , business , political economy , public administration , regression analysis , politics , macroeconomics , law , computer science , philosophy , chemistry , materials science , epistemology , chromatography , composite material , machine learning
Using aggregate level data on U.S. business cycles, this article addresses the question of whether or not economic conditions may have impacted presidential elections during the sample. A simple regression model is employed, and the results indicate that downturns in the economy hurt the fortunes of incumbent presidents, or the candidate of their party, during the sample.