Kosten und Folgen multilateraler Politikmaßnahmen zur Bekämpfung von Preisspitzen

summary The Costs and Consequences of Multi‐lateral Policies Against Price Spikes Startling volatility in food commodity prices leads policymakers to reconsider their policy options, with widespread interest in buffer stocks and targeted consumer subsidies, including among G8 and G20 leaders who committed themselves to action. Stored grains would be released in the event of severe price increases, thus relieving pressure on commodity markets and decreasing prices. As we show, the downside of stocks large enough to temper a surge in world rice prices are high prices during the stock building phase. Direct and targeted aid to affected consumers is very effective at helping selected consumers. Any consumer subsidy encourages demand by lowering prices for its beneficiaries, but their ability to sustain their commodity purchases drives prices even higher so other consumers suffer even more. In choosing between these two options, the decision is whether to shift the burden of a price spike to other years, or to other consumers – at taxpayer cost. Additional challenges are to identify targeted consumers, set public stock rules and avoid displacement of private stocks. Current discussions about how to mitigate price surges should weigh the benefits of alternative policies against their budgetary costs and unintended consequences to design optimal responses to potential price surges.