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TESTS OF NONLINEAR DYNAMICS IN U.S. HOMICIDE TIME SERIES, AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS *
Author(s) -
McDOWALL DAVID
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
criminology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.467
H-Index - 139
eISSN - 1745-9125
pISSN - 0011-1384
DOI - 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2002.tb00971.x
Subject(s) - homicide , nonlinear system , series (stratigraphy) , econometrics , time series , process (computing) , statistical physics , mathematics , psychology , statistics , computer science , poison control , injury prevention , physics , geology , medicine , paleontology , quantum mechanics , environmental health , operating system
Attempts to explain temporal patterns in U.S. homicide data usually assume that a linear process accounts for the variation. A nonlinear process is an obvious alternative, however, and reasonable arguments suggest that nonlinearity may in part underlie homicide series dynamics. This paper applies tests for nonlinearity to national time series of homicide rates and counts. The results provide relatively little evidence of nonlinear structure; instead, a linear (random walk) process appears to generate most of the change in the series. Although this supports the unstated assumptions of current theories, it also raises questions about why homicides should follow a linear time path in the first place.