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THE LIMITED ROLE OF CHANGING AGE STRUCTURE IN EXPLAINING AGGREGATE CRIME RATES *
Author(s) -
Levitt Steven D.
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
criminology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.467
H-Index - 139
eISSN - 1745-9125
pISSN - 0011-1384
DOI - 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1999.tb00497.x
Subject(s) - odds , per capita , demographic economics , distribution (mathematics) , aggregate (composite) , baby boom , boom , demography , economics , property crime , criminology , violent crime , psychology , sociology , logistic regression , environmental science , mathematics , statistics , population , mathematical analysis , materials science , environmental engineering , composite material
Changes in the age structure are shown to have a limited impact on aggregate crime rates. Even the dramatic transformation of the age distribution accompanying the baby boom shifted crime rates by no more than 1 % per year. Projected changes in the age distribution between 1995 and 2010 will lead to slight declines in per capita crime rates. These results are at odds with recent predictions of an impending demographically driven crime wave. Such predictions have focused exclusively on a rise in juvenile crime and ignored the offsetting decreases among adults.