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CAUSALITY, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, AND BURGLARY *
Author(s) -
CHAMLIN MITCHELL B.,
COCHRAN JOHN K.
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
criminology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.467
H-Index - 139
eISSN - 1745-9125
pISSN - 0011-1384
DOI - 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1998.tb01254.x
Subject(s) - bivariate analysis , causality (physics) , autoregressive integrated moving average , fluctuating asymmetry , econometrics , economics , criminology , demographic economics , psychology , time series , statistics , mathematics , ecology , physics , quantum mechanics , biology
This study examines the extent to which the symmetry‐asymmetry distinction and offense aggregation bias obfuscate the relationship between economic conditions and crime. Specifically, we use ARIMA techniques to assess the impact of incremental and abrupt changes in oil prices on counts of total, commercial, and residential burglaries in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Taken together, the bivariate and interrupted time series analyses indicate that the causal impact of oil prices on burglary is asymmetrical and varies across the two subcategories of breaking and entering.