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PREDICTION AND INFERENCE IN CRIMINOLOGY
Author(s) -
MOVAHEDI SIAMAK,
OGLES RICHARD H.
Publication year - 1976
Publication title -
criminology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.467
H-Index - 139
eISSN - 1745-9125
pISSN - 0011-1384
DOI - 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1976.tb00011.x
Subject(s) - explication , event (particle physics) , inference , meaning (existential) , computer science , sequence (biology) , probability and statistics , epistemology , mathematics , artificial intelligence , statistics , philosophy , physics , quantum mechanics , biology , genetics
Abstract The calculus of probability constitutes an elegant formal model for the various questions of prediction in criminology. However, the use of this model has been criticized for its failure to deal with individual instances vis‐à‐vis group phenomena. It has been argued that since probability is a function of classes or sequence of events, no meaning can be attached to the probability of a single event. This paper presents a logical analysis of this aspect of probability and prediction. The proposal of logical probability is suggested as a meaningful explication of the prediction and the probability of a single event .