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Economics of Declining Water Supplies in the Ogallala Aquifer a
Author(s) -
Warren John,
Mapp Harry,
Ray Daryll,
Kletke Darrel,
Wang Charles
Publication year - 1982
Publication title -
groundwater
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.84
H-Index - 94
eISSN - 1745-6584
pISSN - 0017-467X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1745-6584.1982.tb01333.x
Subject(s) - baseline (sea) , commodity , agriculture , cropping , aquifer , economics , agricultural economics , time horizon , production (economics) , irrigation , dryland farming , natural resource economics , environmental science , water resource management , groundwater , geography , macroeconomics , engineering , ecology , oceanography , geotechnical engineering , archaeology , finance , biology , market economy , geology
A large portion of northwest Oklahoma is situated over the Ogallala Aquifer. Economic growth in the region has been tied closely to irrigated agriculture which depends on declining ground‐water resources in the Ogallala formation. As part of an integrated six‐State study, Oklahoma researchers developed a computer model of the agricultural sector of northwestern Oklahoma and estimated irrigated and dryland cropping patterns, farm output and farm income over a 40‐year planning horizon. Projections were made for a “baseline” situation, and the sensitivity of these results to alternative assumptions on energy costs, commodity prices and technological development was also analyzed. Preliminary results of the baseline analysis suggest a favorable outlook for irrigated agriculture in the area through the near to mid‐term, with increases in irrigated acreage, production, and returns to land and management. However, the baseline case is dependent on several relatively optimistic assumptions regarding future fuel prices, yields, and agricultural commodity prices. Even fairly large changes in fuel prices and yields are not particularly critical for model results, but if agricultural commodity prices are substantially lower than projected, the outlook for irrigated agriculture in the area is not favorable.