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THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR USE IN THE POULTRY INDUSTRY
Author(s) -
OSCAR THOMAS P.
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
journal of food safety
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.427
H-Index - 43
eISSN - 1745-4565
pISSN - 0149-6085
DOI - 10.1111/j.1745-4565.1998.tb00227.x
Subject(s) - salmonella , contamination , poultry farming , risk assessment , population , consumption (sociology) , environmental health , veterinary medicine , biology , toxicology , broiler , food science , medicine , ecology , computer science , bacteria , social science , genetics , computer security , sociology
A simulation model that assesses the risk of acquiring salmonellosis from consumption and handling of chicken was created in an Excel ™ spreadsheet and was simulated using Risk ™. The model simulated the distribution, preparation, and consumption of 1,000 chickens and was designed to determine the relationship between the level of Salmonella contamination on chickens at the processing plant exit and the risk of salmonellosis for consumers of the chickens. A scatter plot of the probability of acquiring salmonellosis from consumption of the chickens simulated versus the Salmonella load on the chickens at the processing plant exit clearly showed that highly (i.e., > 100 Salmonella/ bird) contaminated chickens at the plant exit did not necessarily pose greater risk of salmonellosis than lightly (i.e., < 10 Salmonella/ bird) contaminated chickens at the plant exit. Rather, greater risk of salmonellosis was realized from lightly contaminated chickens when they were temperature‐abused, undercooked, and consumed by someone from the high risk population.