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NORTH AMERICAN HOG SUPPLY: A COMPARISON OF GEOMETRIC AND POLYNOMIAL DISTRIBUTED LAG MODELS*
Author(s) -
Meilke K. D.,
Zwart A. C.,
Martin L. J.
Publication year - 1974
Publication title -
canadian journal of agricultural economics/revue canadienne d'agroeconomie
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.505
H-Index - 37
eISSN - 1744-7976
pISSN - 0008-3976
DOI - 10.1111/j.1744-7976.1974.tb00925.x
Subject(s) - polynomial , mathematics , polynomial regression , lag , distributed lag , humanities , mathematical economics , combinatorics , econometrics , regression , statistics , computer science , mathematical analysis , philosophy , computer network
This paper estimates quarterly supply response functions for hogs in Eastern Canada, Western Canada, and the United States. The supply functions are estimated using geometric and polynomial distributed lag models. The two distributed lag formulations are compared in terms of: (1) their implied long‐ and short‐run price elasticities; (2) the pattern of supply response over time; (3) the effect on the coefficients of other variables included in the equations; and (4) the problem of serial correlation. Le présent article a pour but déstimer lest fonctions de résponse trinces trielle de I'off re de pore pour Vest Canadien, I'Quest Canadien et les Etats‐Unis. Les fonctions ďoffre sont estimies à la áide de modeles geometriques et polynomials de retard distribué. Les deux formules de retard distribué sont compareés en termes de: (I) leurs implicites elasticilés des prix pour le court et le long terme; (2) la structure de la réponse de I'offre dans le temps; (3) I'effet sur les coefficients et aulres variables incluses dans les equations; et (4) le problème de corrélation en séries. SUMMARY In general, the polynomial supply functions performed as expected. Since the polynomial has a stronger theoretical base than the geometric, it is probably the preferred technique to use in estimating quarterly livestock supply function. Serial correlation with the polynomial specification was troublesome but easily handled using standard techniques such as the Hildreth‐Lu. Nevertheless, the real test of the polynomial will have to await its widespread use in forecasting future supply.