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SIMULATING THE SPATIO‐TEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF THE PINE CATERPILLAR ( DENDROLIMUS PUNCTATUS WALKER) DAMAGE USING THE GENERALIZED CA MODEL
Author(s) -
Zhou Guofa
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
insect science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.991
H-Index - 45
eISSN - 1744-7917
pISSN - 1672-9609
DOI - 10.1111/j.1744-7917.1996.tb00275.x
Subject(s) - correlogram , biology , caterpillar , component (thermodynamics) , biological system , lepidoptera genitalia , ecology , mathematics , physics , statistics , thermodynamics
A nonlinear model for simulating the spatio‐temporal dynamics of the damage level of the pine caterpillar, Dendrolimus punctatus Walker, is proposed in this study. It includes the self‐dependence (interaction) component, the reaction component, and the cross effect component. The average distance of interaction and reaction and how the dependence changes along distance are detected by using variogram and correlogram. The simulation result shows that the model may forecast the high damage level properly, but a bit underforecast for the low damage area. The predicted trend of damage is the same as the actually occurred.