Microclimate Change and Effect on Fire Following Forest‐Grass Conversion in Seasonally Dry Tropical Woodland 1

We tested the hypothesis that, where fire has historically been infrequent, wooded areas that have been invaded by grasses and converted to grassland by fire are predisposed to future fire compared to adjacent areas that remain wooded; thus, an initial forest fire may promote future fires. We compared microclimate between a grass‐dominated burned area and a nearby grass‐invaded woodland that has not burned in recent history, both located in the submontane dry forest of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. The results were used to parameterize BEHAVE, a fire behavior prediction model developed by the USDA Forest Service. The model's predictions include probability of ignition, intensity, rate of spread, and tree mortality. Contrary to expectations, daytime hourly mean temperatures were higher and relative humidity was lower in the woodland site. However, the differences in temperature and humidity were not great enough to affect spread rate or probability of ignition. Wind speeds were substantially greater in the grassland, and this was most important in driving differences in modeled fire spread. Given similar synoptic conditions, a fire started in the grassland can be expected to spread an order of magnitude faster than one started in the woodland.