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THE FUTURE OF CRITERION‐RELATED VALIDITY 1
Author(s) -
SCHMIDT FRANK L.,
HUNTER JOHN E.
Publication year - 1980
Publication title -
personnel psychology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.076
H-Index - 142
eISSN - 1744-6570
pISSN - 0031-5826
DOI - 10.1111/j.1744-6570.1980.tb02163.x
Subject(s) - psychology , generalization , trait , social psychology , criterion validity , incremental validity , test validity , personnel selection , external validity , selection (genetic algorithm) , statistics , psychometrics , construct validity , epistemology , artificial intelligence , mathematics , clinical psychology , computer science , philosophy , programming language
As a result of rejection by personnel psychologists of the erroneous law of small numbers and of the adoption of correct inferential procedures, the future of criterion‐related validity promises to be bright. Probable future developments include: (a) widespread appreciation of the low statistical power characteristic of small samples; (b) rejection of the traditional belief that validities are situationally specific; (c) widespread validity generalization based on new methods; (d) research demonstrations that rational estimates of validity are often superior in accuracy to empirical estimates; (e) widespread acceptance of research findings showing that single‐group and differential validity by race are artifactual rather than substantive in origin and that test unfairness by race is a nonproblem; (f) increased application of decision‐theoretic dollar utility analyses to selection programs; and (g) progress in the establishment of general principles and theories about trait‐performance relations in the world of work.