Open AccessProspective cohort study comparing sequential organ failure assessment and acute physiology, age, chronic health evaluation III scoring systems for hospital mortality prediction in critically ill cirrhotic patients
Author(s) -
Chen YC,
Tian YC,
Liu NJ,
Ho YP,
Yang C.,
Chu YY,
Chen PC,
Fang JT,
Hsu CW,
Yang CW,
Tsai MH
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
international journal of clinical practice
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.756
H-Index - 98
eISSN - 1742-1241
pISSN - 1368-5031
DOI - 10.1111/j.1742-1241.2005.00634.x
Subject(s) - medicine , apache ii , receiver operating characteristic , youden's j statistic , intensive care unit , logistic regression , sofa score , critically ill , severity of illness , prospective cohort study , emergency medicine , intensive care medicine
Summary The aim of the study was to evaluate the usefulness of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and acute physiology, age, chronic health evaluation III (APACHE III) scoring systems obtained on the first day of intensive care unit (ICU) admission in predicting hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients. The study enrolled 102 cirrhotic patients consecutively admitted to ICU during a 1‐year period. Twenty‐five demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were analysed as predicators of survival. Information considered necessary to calculate the Child–Pugh, SOFA and APACHE III scores on the first day of ICU admission was also gathered. Overall hospital mortality was 68.6%. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that mean arterial pressure, SOFA and APACHE III scores were significantly related to prognosis. Goodness‐of‐fit was good for the SOFA and APACHE III models. Both predictive models displayed a similar degree of the best Youden index (0.68) and overall correctness (84%) of prediction. The SOFA and APACHE III models displayed good areas under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (0.917 ± 0.028 and 0.912 ± 0.029, respectively). Finally, a strong and significant positive correlation exists between SOFA and APACHE III scores for individual patients ( r 2 = 0.628, p < 0.001). This investigation confirms the grave prognosis for cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU. Both SOFA and APACHE III scores are excellent tools to predict the hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients. The overall predictive accuracy of SOFA and APACHE III is superior to that of Child–Pugh system. The role of these scoring systems in describing the dynamic aspects of clinical courses and allocating ICU resources needs to be clarified.