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Modelling the impact of modifying lifestyle risk factors on dementia prevalence in Australian population aged 45 years and over, 2006–2051
Author(s) -
Nepal Binod,
Brown Laurie,
Ranmuthugala Geetha
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
australasian journal on ageing
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.63
H-Index - 34
eISSN - 1741-6612
pISSN - 1440-6381
DOI - 10.1111/j.1741-6612.2010.00392.x
Subject(s) - dementia , medicine , gerontology , population , obesity , demography , population ageing , environmental health , disease , sociology , pathology
Aim: To model impact of modifiable risk behaviour on dementia prevalence among the Australian population aged 45 years and over. Methods: A group‐based computer model was constructed to estimate the impact of modifying risk behaviour on dementia prevalence. Results: Based on population ageing, the number of people aged 45 years and over living with dementia is expected to triple from 187 000 in 2006 to 650 000 by 2051. A drop in proportion ever smokers by 5% every 5 years would lower population with dementia by 2% in 2051. If obesity rate drops by 5%, dementia prevalence would be lower by 6%. A decline in physical inactivity rate by 5% would reduce dementia by 11%. Persistence of the growing trend in obesity and physical inactivity would result in a larger than expected dementia epidemic. Conclusion: Improving the risk behaviours has potential to make a substantial reduction in the number of people with dementia.