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The future aged: new projections of Australia. ‘s elderly population
Author(s) -
Booth Heather,
Tickle Leonie
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
australasian journal on ageing
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.63
H-Index - 34
eISSN - 1741-6612
pISSN - 1440-6381
DOI - 10.1111/j.1741-6612.2003.tb00497.x
Subject(s) - life expectancy , projections of population growth , demography , population projection , population , dependency ratio , population ageing , geography , gerontology , medicine , research methodology , sociology
Objectives: To use new methodology to forecast mortality for use in projections of the elderly population of Australia and to compare them with official projections. Method: The Lee‐Carter method is applied to data for Australian females and males for 1968–2000 to forecast mortality to 2031. These forecasts are used with standard population projection methods to produce projections of the elderly population. Results: By 2027, forecast life expectancy is 88.1 and 82.9 years for females and males, compared with official projections of 85.4 and 81.4 years. Over the period to 2031, the populations aged 65+ and 85+ are forecast to increase by factors of 2.3 and 3.4 respectively. Compared with official projectrons, the forecast elderly population is substantially larger and has higher old‐age dependency ratios, higher proportions aged 85+ and lower sex ratios. Conclusion: Official projections underestimate the size of the future elderly population especially the female and ola'est‐old populations.