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Low Fertility and the State: The Efficacy of Policy
Author(s) -
Mcdonald Peter
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
population and development review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.836
H-Index - 96
eISSN - 1728-4457
pISSN - 0098-7921
DOI - 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2006.00134.x
Subject(s) - population , context (archaeology) , fertility , political science , state (computer science) , bust , sociology , demography , history , algorithm , computer science , archaeology , boom , environmental engineering , engineering
Some 30 countries today have fertility rates below 1.5 births per woman. The governments of each of these countries have reported to the United Nations that they consider this rate to be "too low" (United Nations 2004). When fertility is moderately below replacement level the size of subsequent generations falls only slowly and if considered necessary there is an opportunity to supplement the generation size with migration. When fertility remains very low however the generation size falls rapidly and massive migration would be required to offset the decline (United Nations 2000). Hence we can think in terms of a "safety zone" for low fertility. Population dynamics tends to confirm the view of governments that the "safety zone" lies above 1.5 births per woman. (excerpt)