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The Next 50 Years: Unfolding Trends
Author(s) -
Smil Vaclav
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
population and development review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.836
H-Index - 96
eISSN - 1728-4457
pISSN - 0098-7921
DOI - 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00091.x
Subject(s) - alliance , china , futures studies , political science , futures contract , socioeconomic status , geography , development economics , economic geography , economics , sociology , demography , population , law , artificial intelligence , computer science , financial economics
Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, and often catastrophic, events and because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic, social, economic, strategic, and environmental trends. A previous essay by the author assessed the probabilities over the coming five decades of the most important natural and anthropogenic catastrophes with possible global impacts. This essay surveys key socioeconomic trends of the next 50 years. While the ranking and comparative assessments of the importance, intensity, and durability of these trends may be elusive, their historic background, complexity, linkages, and likely consequences can be illuminated by focusing on the long‐term futures of six major global actors: the United States, the European Union, the Muslim world, Japan, Russia, and China. This appraisal suggests a likelihood of a world without a dominant power (or a grand alliance) and subject to a potentially worrisome fragmentation.