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The Long‐Term Effect of the Timing of Fertility Decline on Population Size
Author(s) -
O'Neill Brian C.,
Scherbov Sergei,
Lutz Wolfgang
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
population and development review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.836
H-Index - 96
eISSN - 1728-4457
pISSN - 0098-7921
DOI - 10.1111/j.1728-4457.1999.00749.x
Subject(s) - fertility , total fertility rate , term (time) , population momentum , population , population projection , population size , demographic transition , population growth , range (aeronautics) , birth rate , demography , economics , research methodology , family planning , physics , quantum mechanics , sociology , materials science , composite material
Existing long‐range population projections imply that the timing of the fertility transition has a relatively unimportant effect on long‐term population size when compared with the impact of the level at which fertility is assumed eventually to stabilize. However, this note shows that the effect of the timing of fertility decline is a function of the eventual fertility rate: the lower the eventual fertility rate, the greater the effect of the timing of the transition becomes. This finding has important implications for projection methodology, as well as for policies related to the consequences of long‐term levels of population size.