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EARLY PREDICTION OF SYMPTOMATIC PATENT DUCTUS ARTERIOSUS FROM PERINATAL RISK FACTORS: A DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS MODEL
Author(s) -
COTTON ROBERT B.,
LINDSTROM DANIEL P.,
STAHLMAN MILDRED T.
Publication year - 1981
Publication title -
acta pædiatrica
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.772
H-Index - 115
eISSN - 1651-2227
pISSN - 0803-5253
DOI - 10.1111/j.1651-2227.1981.tb05775.x
Subject(s) - medicine , ductus arteriosus , pediatrics , birth weight , population , low birth weight , discriminant function analysis , obstetrics , pregnancy , genetics , environmental health , machine learning , computer science , biology
. Cotton, R. B., Lindstrom, D. P. and Stahlman, M. T. (Depaitment of Pediatrics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA). Early prediction of symptomatic patent ductus arteriosus from perinatal risk factors: a discriminant analysis model. Acta Paediatr Scand, 70:723,.–A scoring system based on discriminant analysis was devised to predict, within 24 hours after birth, whether or not a premature infant will subsequently develop a symptomatic PDA. Five risk factors including birth weight, the diagnosis of hyaline membrane disease, intrauterine growth retardation, acute perinatal stress, and treatment with distending airway pressure were reduced to a discriminant score which separated infants with symptomatic PDA from infants without sympomatic PDA. Based on this score, the likelihood that an individual infant would later develop symptomatic PDA could be expressed as a probability function. When applied prospectively, this score predicted the correct outcome of 80 % of infants in a test population. This predictive model should be useful in clinical trials and other applications requiring a quantitative expression of risk for developing symptomatic ductus shunting.