Factors predicting caries risk in children

– Selection of caries‐risk groups is difficult and unreliable. In this study we analyzed the known correlates of caries and their interrelations. The subjects ( n = 153) were seventh graders (13 yr old) from a school in Kuopio. Data were collected by mail survey ( n = 150), from the clinical registers of the local health center ( n = 135), and from a saliva test. In the first stage we computed the bivariate correlates between the D‐index and its traditionally defined determinants. In the second stage the predictors of caries risk were ranked using discriminant and multiple regression analyses. The bivariate correlates of caries were: DMF‐index of the previous year (r = 0.69), D‐index of the previous year (r = 0.59), lactobacillus count (r = 0.26), buffer capacity (r = 0.20), and toothbrushing frequency (r = 0.07). In discriminant analyses the DMF‐index among girls and the frequency of consumption of sweets among boys were the only significant discriminators. In the multiple regression analyses, however, the final model ( P <0.001) for girls included: DMF‐index of the previous year (β= 0.64) and lactobacillus count (β= 0.31). The corresponding model for boys ( P <0.001) included: DMF‐index of the previous year (β= 0.55) and frequency of consumption of sweets (β= 0.24). Using these variables, it is difficult to develop a reliable method for determining the caries susceptible groups, but of them, the DMF‐index seems the most reliable for predicting caries risk among children.