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Prediction of Survival in Adults with Acquired Bi‐ or Pancytopenia
Author(s) -
Clemmesen L.,
Hansen M. Mørk,
Videbæk Aa.,
Thiede T.,
Mortensen L.
Publication year - 1984
Publication title -
scandinavian journal of haematology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.904
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1600-0609
pISSN - 0036-553X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1600-0609.1984.tb02166.x
Subject(s) - pancytopenia , medicine , survival analysis , bone marrow , logistic regression , stepwise regression , myeloid , retrospective cohort study , overall survival , bone marrow failure , oncology , gastroenterology , haematopoiesis , biology , stem cell , genetics
In a retrospective study of 44 adults with acquired bi‐ or pancytopenia without evidence of any causal disorder, the survival curve suggested the existence of a subgroup of short survivors, mainly with aplastic anaemia, with death within 4 months. The initial values of 14 single clinical, blood and bone marrow variables were significantly associated with survival < 4 months. Stepwise multiple logistic regression analyses identified 2 combinations of variables displaying significant simultaneous associations with short survival: (i) increased % of non‐myeloid bone marrow cells and haemorrhagic manifestations initially; (ii) increased % of non‐myeloid marrow cells, circulating erythroblasts and no history of any drug exposure. The predictive capacities of a resulting estimate of the probability of short survival and of previously introduced prognostic indices were approximately equal. The frequency of a correct prediction of a survival shorter than 4 months was in the range of 0.71–0.78 and that of longer survival in the range of 0.74–0.94.