Open AccessThe effect of spring temperature on the appearance dates of British butterflies 1883–1993
Author(s) -
Sparks T. H.,
Yates T. J.
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
ecography
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.973
H-Index - 128
eISSN - 1600-0587
pISSN - 0906-7590
DOI - 10.1111/j.1600-0587.1997.tb00381.x
Subject(s) - butterfly , extant taxon , phenology , spring (device) , ecology , climate change , larva , geography , orange (colour) , biology , evolutionary biology , mechanical engineering , horticulture , engineering
This paper examines the first appearance of butterflies using two sources, historical data from the former phenologieal reports of the Royal Meteorological Society and recent data from the extant Butterfly Monitoring Scheme Using regression techniques mean dates of appearance are related to Manley's central England temperatures and are then examined for other, unexplained, trends over time The observed relationships suggest that, in the absence of evolutionary change, climate warming of the order of 3°C could advance butterfly appearance by two to three weeks The flowering of two of the larval foodplants of the orange tip butterfly is also examined, with the conclusion that synchrony is likely to be maintained by a similar advance in timing The consequences of such changes to the phenology of British butterflies are discussed