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Development of the Dundee Caries Risk Assessment Model (DCRAM) – risk model development using a novel application of CHAID analysis
Author(s) -
MacRitchie Heather M. B.,
Longbottom Christopher,
Robertson Margaret,
Nugent Zoann,
Chan Karen,
Radford John R.,
Pitts Nigel B.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
community dentistry and oral epidemiology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.061
H-Index - 101
eISSN - 1600-0528
pISSN - 0301-5661
DOI - 10.1111/j.1600-0528.2011.00630.x
Subject(s) - chaid , medicine , risk assessment , dentistry , cohort , visitor pattern , environmental health , decision tree , data mining , computer security , computer science , programming language
MacRitchie HMB, Longbottom C, Robertson M, Nugent Z, Chan K, Radford JR, Pitts NB. Development of the Dundee Caries Risk Assessment Model (DCRAM) – risk model development using a novel application of CHAID analysis. Community Dent Oral Epidemiol 2012; 40: 37–45. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S Abstract Objectives: To use a novel statistical analysis in the development of caries risk assessment models for preschool children for use in a particular community setting. Methods: Data were collected longitudinally on a cohort of approximately 1500 children born in one calendar year in the city of Dundee, Scotland. A dental examination and oral microbiological saliva sample, together with parental and health visitor questionnaires, were completed for each child at ages 1, 2, 3 and 4 years. The 1‐year data were analysed using chi‐squared automated interaction detector analysis (CHAID) to produce a set of caries risk assessment models for predicting caries in 4‐year‐olds. Results: Four risk models were developed using CHAID analysis for caries at 4 years of age using risk assessment data collected at age 1. These models included two ‘any’ caries–risk models ( n = 697, dmft >0) and two ‘high’ caries–risk models ( n = 784, dmft ≥3) depending on the use of the d 1 (enamel and dentine) or d 3 (dentine only) level of caries detection. The most appropriate model developed for use was shown to be the CHAID high caries–risk model at the d 3 level of detection (d 3 mft ≥3). This had a sensitivity of 65% and specificity of 69%. Conclusions: An appropriate risk assessment model for use in a particular community setting predicting caries at age 4 years from data collected at age 1 year was developed. This has been termed the Dundee Caries Risk Assessment Model.