Premium
Forecasting pseudo‐periodic seasonal patterns in agricultural prices
Author(s) -
MartínRodríguez Gloria,
CáceresHernández José Juan
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.29
H-Index - 82
eISSN - 1574-0862
pISSN - 0169-5150
DOI - 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2012.00601.x
Subject(s) - seasonality , seasonal adjustment , econometrics , agriculture , economics , period (music) , environmental science , agricultural economics , geography , mathematics , statistics , ecology , biology , mathematical analysis , physics , variable (mathematics) , acoustics
A seasonal model is proposed to forecast agricultural prices with pseudo‐periodic seasonal patterns, in which the length of the seasonal period does not remain the same over time. The seasonal effect at a season is defined as a function of the proportion of the seasonal period length elapsed up to that season, and the seasonal pattern is modeled by means of evolving splines to capture any dynamic process of change. Such a model is a useful tool to forecast seasonal behaviors. To illustrate the relevance of this modeling framework, the methodology is applied to weekly prices of tomatoes exported to German markets.