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Foot‐and‐mouth disease and the Mexican cattle industry
Author(s) -
Nogueira Lia,
Marsh Thomas L.,
Tozer Peter R.,
Peel Derrell
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.29
H-Index - 82
eISSN - 1574-0862
pISSN - 0169-5150
DOI - 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2011.00550.x
Subject(s) - outbreak , foot and mouth disease , agricultural economics , scale (ratio) , economics , business , geography , socioeconomics , development economics , natural resource economics , veterinary medicine , medicine , cartography , virology
The objective of this article is to analyze the domestic and international effects of a hypothetical foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the Mexican cattle industry. A discrete time dynamic optimization model of the Mexican cattle sector is specified, and linked to domestic and international markets. Economic consequences of FMD outbreaks are simulated over time and under different scenarios. Specific findings and general policy recommendations are provided. The study reports a range of outbreaks from localized to large scale and suggests that changes in economic surplus due to FMD range from a positive net gain of $0.89 to $1.6 billion to a net loss of about $67 billion, depending on the specific mitigation strategy and outbreak scenario.