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Exchange rate uncertainty and agricultural trade: panel cointegration analysis for Turkey
Author(s) -
Erdem Ekrem,
Nazlioglu Saban,
Erdem Cumhur
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.29
H-Index - 82
eISSN - 1574-0862
pISSN - 0169-5150
DOI - 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2010.00469.x
Subject(s) - cointegration , economics , exchange rate , agriculture , panel data , international economics , turkish , bilateral trade , international trade , econometrics , agricultural economics , monetary economics , geography , china , linguistics , philosophy , archaeology
This study addresses the impact of exchange rate levels and uncertainty on bilateral agricultural trade between Turkey and 20 major trading partners, using panel cointegration analysis for annual data covering the period 1980–2005. Results show that (i) the exchange rate level is less robustly linked to trade volumes than is exchange rate uncertainty, (ii) exchange rate uncertainty is associated with smaller trade volumes in both directions, but more so for imports than for exports, and (iii) income growth in Turkey is associated with greater imports, just as income growth among trading partners is associated with greater exports. These findings provide some clues for understanding the recent patterns of Turkish agricultural trade, and suggest directions for future research.