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Trade policy, biotechnology and grain self‐sufficiency in China
Author(s) -
Felloni Fabrizio,
Gilbert John,
Wahl Thomas I.,
Wandschneider Philip
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.29
H-Index - 82
eISSN - 1574-0862
pISSN - 0169-5150
DOI - 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2003.tb00136.x
Subject(s) - china , computable general equilibrium , accession , economics , productivity , agriculture , international trade , welfare , agricultural economics , international economics , agricultural biotechnology , self sufficiency , intervention (counseling) , agricultural productivity , natural resource economics , market economy , economic growth , macroeconomics , biology , european union , ecology , political science , law , psychology , psychiatry
Over the past 20 years the growth of China's agricultural economy has been extraordinary. However, it seems unlikely that China will maintain self‐sufficiency in grains by 2005 without substantial intervention. We develop a CGE model to assess the options available to Chinese policy makers. We compare the welfare effects of import tariffs and domestic support, and explore the potential of biotechnology as a means to achieve self‐sufficiency through improvements in agricultural productivity. Our results indicate that the price interventions that would be required to maintain China's desired self‐sufficiency ratios are considerable, and are unlikely to be compatible with WTO accession. The productivity improvements required are also significant, and likely beyond the current potential of biotechnology.