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Estimating the effectiveness of extension information systems using farm trials and subjective probabilities
Author(s) -
Howard Wayne H.,
Blake Robert W.,
Knight Thomas O.,
Shumway C. Richard,
Tomaszewski Michael A.
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.29
H-Index - 82
eISSN - 1574-0862
pISSN - 0169-5150
DOI - 10.1111/j.1574-0862.1992.tb00206.x
Subject(s) - stochastic dominance , yield (engineering) , extension (predicate logic) , statistics , herd , survey data collection , dominance (genetics) , control (management) , econometrics , computer science , agricultural science , mathematics , medicine , programming language , biochemistry , materials science , chemistry , environmental science , artificial intelligence , veterinary medicine , metallurgy , gene
A method of combining survey data and Dairy Herd Improvement Association (DHIA) records to achieve low cost farm trials is presented. Farm trials and surveys of current practices and production responses are useful to identify yield gaps between expectations predicted from experimental findings and actual field results. Different management schemes can be ranked using subjective probabilities and stochastic dominance to enhance successful implementation of research findings and to increase the feedback between researchers, extension workers, and producers. A survey of current masitis control practices and expected milk yield response is the example. Combining survey results with DHIA records allowed estimating the relationship between somatic cell counts (SCC) and milk yield. Eliciting beliefs about the relationship between SCC and milk yield showed that producers agreed with predictions from the statistical model. Subjective probabilities about SCC and mastitis control practices showed that our sample of experts and producers consistently ranked the different practices but extension agents had no consensus about the the most or least effective ones.