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Why It Can't Happen to Me: The Base Rate Matters, But Overestimating Skill Leads to Underestimating Risk 1
Author(s) -
Greening Leilani,
Chandler Carla C.
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
journal of applied social psychology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.822
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1559-1816
pISSN - 0021-9029
DOI - 10.1111/j.1559-1816.1997.tb00658.x
Subject(s) - psychology , social psychology , base (topology) , accident (philosophy) , control (management) , economics , mathematics , mathematical analysis , philosophy , management , epistemology
Undergraduates (N = 330) estimated their risk for aversive events (e.g., motor vehicle accident), in which we varied personal control (e.g., driver = self or other) and bogus base rates (high vs. low). Base rate data influenced risk estimates, but people underestimated their risk if they were the agent (e.g., the driver) rather than if another person was the agent. Justifications for estimates suggested that the base rate was perceived to be the risk for the average person. Most people then adjusted their estimates for a negative outcome downward because they believed that they were better than average on a skill (e.g., driving skill) that was perceived to be causally related to the event.