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Wishful Thinking—Against All Odds
Author(s) -
Babad Elisha,
Katz Yosi
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
journal of applied social psychology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.822
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1559-1816
pISSN - 0021-9029
DOI - 10.1111/j.1559-1816.1991.tb00514.x
Subject(s) - wishful thinking , psychology , legitimacy , odds , context (archaeology) , preference , social psychology , function (biology) , subjectivity , outcome (game theory) , epistemology , economics , statistics , microeconomics , political science , mathematics , philosophy , evolutionary biology , politics , law , biology , paleontology , logistic regression
Wishful thinking (WT)—defined as predicting a more favorable outcome for a preferred team—was investigated in soccer stadia and betting stations in Israel. High levels of WT were found in all contexts investigated. As hypothesized, the intensity of WT varied between contexts as a function of the “legitimacy” of emotionalism and subjectivity, and within each context as a function of self‐defined levels of fanhood and preference. An explicit instruction to be objective did not reduce WT in predicting game outcomes. Paid betting forms represented an ecologically valid voluntary behavior most contradictory of wishful thinking, since bettors are strongly motivated to be objective and impartial. The results showed that fans could not overcome their wishful thinking, betting emotionally and against their financial interest.