EVOLUTIONARY PREDICTABILITY IN NATURAL POPULATIONS: DO MATING SYSTEM AND NONADDITIVE GENETIC VARIANCE INTERACT TO AFFECT HERITABILITIES IN PLANTAGO LANCEOLATA ?

Quantitative genetics has been an immensely powerful tool in manipulating the phenotypes of domesticated plants and animals. Much of the predictive power of quantitative genetics depends on the breeder's control over the context in which phenotype and mating are being expressed. In the natural world, these contexts are often difficult to describe, let alone control. We are left, therefore, with a poor understanding of the limits of quantitative genetics in natural populations. One of the crucial contextual elements for assessing breeding value is the genetic background in which an individual's genes are being assessed. When interacting genes are polymorphic within a population, the degree of mating among relatives can influence the correlations among mates and the predictions of a response to selection. Population structure can strongly influence the degree to which dominance and epistasis influences additive genetic variance and heritability. The extent of inbreeding can also influence heritabilities through its effect on the environmental component of phenotypic variance. The applicability of standard quantitative genetic breeding designs to the measurement of heritabilities in natural populations therefore depends in part on: (1) the mating system of the population; and (2) the importance of gene interactions in determining phenotypic variation. We tested for an effect of mating structure on the partitioning of phenotypic variance and heritability by comparing two breeding designs in a common environment. Both breeding designs used 139 pollen parents taken from mapped locations in a population of Plantago lanceolata L., and crossed to 280 seed parents from the same population. One design was random‐mating, the second was biased toward near‐neighbor matings to an extent determined by field measure of pollen‐mediated gene flow distances. The offspring were grown randomly mixed in a common garden. Nine traits were measured: central corm diameter, number of leaves, area of the most recently fully expanded leaf, density of hairs (cm ‐2 ) on the leaves, dry weight per unit leaf area, photosynthetic capacity, transpiration rates, water use efficiency, and reproductive dry weight. Heritabilities and variance components from the two designs were compared using randomization tests. None of the variance components or the heritabilities differed significantly between breeding designs at the 0.05 level. The test could distinguish differences between the heritabilities measured in the two breeding designs as small as 0.11, on average. Thus, for the degree of inbreeding normally exhibited in P. lanceolata there is insufficient gene interaction present within populations to influence the partitioning of variance between additive and nonadditive components or to influence heritability estimates to a meaningful extent. We suggest that for Plantago other sources of variation in heritability estimates, such as maternal effects and genotype × environment interactions, are more important influences than the interaction between inbreeding and gene interactions, and standard heritability estimate based on random breeding is as accurate as one taking the natural mating structure into account.