IN SEARCH OF HOMOPLASTIC TENDENCIES: STATISTICAL INFERENCE OF TOPOLOGICAL PATTERNS IN HOMOPLASY

The “tendency” for homoplasy to appear in closely related taxa has been widely discussed but rarely quantified. This paper proposes statistical tests that examine the topological distribution of homoplasy within characters in phylogenies. They test whether character changes are localized (confined to some subtree), or clustered (occur in proximity to each other), relative to two null models of character evolution. Null Model I assumes that the observed number of character changes are dispersed randomly among the internodes of the tree, whereas Model II weights the probability that an internode contains a change by the length of that internode—estimated by the total number of character changes along that internode. Localization is measured by the largest furthest‐neighbor distance between changes, clustering by the mean nearest neighbor distance. Distances are measured either by the number of intervening branches or the number of intervening character changes. Analyses of four cladistic data sets from the literature reveal very few characters that exhibit significant levels of clustering or localization—no more than would be expected by chance. In every data set a majority of characters exhibited at least weak tendencies, but in only one data set was there a significant excess of such characters. The present findings do not provide compelling evidence for the existence of “tendencies” in homoplasy, at least among characters used to reconstruct phylogenies. They should be sought elsewhere, in cladistic analyses of larger scope, probably among a class of characters defined a priori on a structural or functional basis.