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TRENDS AND CYCLES IN THE COMPOSITION OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET, 1947–48
Author(s) -
Teigen Ronald L.
Publication year - 1980
Publication title -
policy studies journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.773
H-Index - 69
eISSN - 1541-0072
pISSN - 0190-292X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1541-0072.1980.tb00915.x
Subject(s) - revenue , federal budget , economics , composition (language) , work (physics) , index (typography) , econometrics , monetary economics , finance , mechanical engineering , linguistics , philosophy , world wide web , fiscal year , computer science , engineering
In this study, systematic movements in the composition of the Federal budget are studied, using a simple statistical structure which distinguishes trend, cyclical, and price‐indexing phenomena. Using NIA data on budget expenditures and receipts, it is found that share movements on both sides of the budget are dominated by trends. Among expenditure categories, the shares of transfer programs show strong upward trends while the defense purchases share has beentrending strongly downward. On the revenue side, the shares represented by social insurance contributions and personal income taxes have been trending upward at the expense of corporateincome taxes and indirect taxes. Significant cyclical and price‐indexing responsiveness is shown by several expenditure and revenue categories. A noteworthy finding is that the estimates show little evidence of structural change over 1947‐1978, suggesting that the trend and otherforces found to be significant are not of recent origin but have been at work over the whole period.