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Historical Experience
Author(s) -
Medelski George
Publication year - 1979
Publication title -
policy studies journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.773
H-Index - 69
eISSN - 1541-0072
pISSN - 0190-292X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1541-0072.1979.tb01034.x
Subject(s) - successor cardinal , presumption , politics , nationalism , political science , political economy , unification , world war ii , term (time) , law and economics , positive economics , history , law , sociology , economics , mathematics , computer science , physics , mathematical analysis , programming language , quantum mechanics
The theory of long cycles is a set of propositions about the behavior of the global political system. It has its roots in a tradition of “oceanic” thought and it may be contrasted with two more conventional models of world politics, the states‐system model and the imperial model. The theory offers a basis for strategic analysis and for the derivation of policy implications: The United States is seen as successor to a line of world powers; this world role calls for a defensive strategy that would avoid the “imperial presumption”; on past experience another global war is not imminent in the present phase of the long cycle; the major immediate problem is the nationalist phase of the cycle; but the long‐term problem confronting the global system is the decay of its political structure.