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A Clinical Risk Score to Predict the Time to First Appropriate Device Therapy in Recipients of Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators
Author(s) -
HREYBE HAITHAM,
SABA SAMIR
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
pacing and clinical electrophysiology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.686
H-Index - 101
eISSN - 1540-8159
pISSN - 0147-8389
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-8159.2007.00679.x
Subject(s) - medicine , implantable cardioverter defibrillator , framingham risk score , proportional hazards model , population , qrs complex , cardiology , disease , environmental health
Background:To develop a risk score to predict the occurrence of appropriate defibrillator [implantable cardioverter‐defibrillator (ICD)] therapies.A simple clinical score predicting the risk of appropriate ICD therapy is lacking.Methods:A Cox regression model was developed from a database of ICD patients at a single tertiary center to predict the time to appropriate ICD therapy defined as shock or antitachycardia pacing. A risk score was derived from this model using half of the database and was validated using the other half.Results:A total of 399 patients were entered into the database between July 2001 and February 2004. There were no statistically significant differences between the derivation (n = 200) and validation (n = 199) groups in any of the demographic or clinical variables recorded. The risk score included three independent variables: indication for ICD implantation (P = 0.03), serum creatinine level (P = 0.015), and QRS width (P = 0.028). The observed risk scores were highly predictive of time to ICD therapy in the validation group (P = 0.02).Conclusion:We describe a new clinical risk score that predicts the time to appropriate device therapy in ICD recipients of a single tertiary center hospital. The performance of this risk score needs to be investigated prospectively in a larger patient population.