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The Statistical and Economic Role of Jumps in Continuous‐Time Interest Rate Models
Author(s) -
Johannes Michael
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
the journal of finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 18.151
H-Index - 299
eISSN - 1540-6261
pISSN - 0022-1082
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-6321.2004.00632.x
Subject(s) - jump , jump diffusion , econometrics , treasury , nonparametric statistics , short rate , economics , interest rate , diffusion , mathematics , yield curve , monetary economics , physics , history , archaeology , quantum mechanics , thermodynamics
This paper analyzes the role of jumps in continuous‐time short rate models. I first develop a test to detect jump‐induced misspecification and, using Treasury bill rates, find evidence for the presence of jumps. Second, I specify and estimate a nonparametric jump‐diffusion model. Results indicate that jumps play an important statistical role. Estimates of jump times and sizes indicate that unexpected news about the macroeconomy generates the jumps. Finally, I investigate the pricing implications of jumps. Jumps generally have a minor impact on yields, but they are important for pricing interest rate options.