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Default Premiums in Commodity Markets: Theory and Evidence
Author(s) -
BAILEY WARREN,
NG EDWARD
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
the journal of finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 18.151
H-Index - 299
eISSN - 1540-6261
pISSN - 0022-1082
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb03777.x
Subject(s) - futures contract , commodity , economics , ex ante , monetary economics , empirical evidence , financial economics , price discovery , futures market , finance , macroeconomics , philosophy , epistemology
We model the effect of nonperformance risk on forward and futures pricing and look for evidence of nonperformance risk in precious metals futures prices from the “Hunt Brothers”episode. Changes in default premiums are measured and related to the sequence of events in the metals markets during this period. Results suggest first that ex ante costs of nonperformance can be a significant, priced factor in commodity markets and second that the arrival of new information is often associated with changes in these costs. The evidence has implications for both theoretical and empirical research on commodity markets.