Premium
Are Stock Returns Predictable? A Test Using Markov Chains
Author(s) -
MCQUEEN GRANT,
THORLEY STEVEN
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
the journal of finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 18.151
H-Index - 299
eISSN - 1540-6261
pISSN - 0022-1082
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb03751.x
Subject(s) - markov chain , random walk , stock (firearms) , econometrics , economics , markov process , mathematics , statistics , engineering , mechanical engineering
This paper uses a Markov chain model to test the random walk hypothesis of stock prices. Given a time series of returns, a Markov chain is defined by letting one state represent high returns and the other represent low returns. The random walk hypothesis restricts the transition probabilities of the Markov chain to be equal irrespective of the prior years. Annual real returns are shown to exhibit significant nonrandom walk behavior in the sense that low (high) returns tend to follow runs of high (low) returns in the postwar period.