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Business Cycles and the Behavior of Metals Prices
Author(s) -
FAMA EUGENE F.,
FRENCH KENNETH R.
Publication year - 1988
Publication title -
the journal of finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 18.151
H-Index - 299
eISSN - 1540-6261
pISSN - 0022-1082
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb03957.x
Subject(s) - futures contract , convenience yield , spot contract , economics , econometrics , normal backwardation , yield (engineering) , business cycle , financial economics , monetary economics , macroeconomics , thermodynamics , physics
The theory of storage says that the marginal convenience yield on inventory falls at a decreasing rate as inventory increases. The authors test this hypothesis by examining the relative variation of spot and futures prices for metals. As the hypothesis implies, futures prices are less variable than spot prices when inventory is low, but spot and futures prices have similar variability when inventory is high. The theory of storage also explains inversions of “normal” futures‐spot price relations around business‐cycle peaks. Positive demand shocks around peaks reduce metal inventories and, as the theory predicts, generate large convenience yields and price inversions.