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Asset Price Volatility, Bubbles, and Process Switching
Author(s) -
FLOOD ROBERT P.,
HODRICK ROBERT J.
Publication year - 1986
Publication title -
the journal of finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 18.151
H-Index - 299
eISSN - 1540-6261
pISSN - 0022-1082
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1986.tb04551.x
Subject(s) - volatility (finance) , economics , econometrics , economic bubble , asset (computer security) , variance (accounting) , financial economics , bubble , monetary economics , computer science , accounting , computer security , parallel computing
Evidence of excess volatilities of asset prices compared with those of market fundamentals is often attributed to speculative bubbles. This study demonstrates that bubbles could in theory lead to excess volatility, but it shows that certain variance bounds tests preclude bubbles as an explanation. The evidence ought to be attributed to model misspecification or inappropriate statistical tests. One important misspecification occurs if a researcher incorrectly specifies the time series properties of market fundamentals. A bubble‐free example economy characterized by a potential switch in government policies produces asset prices that would appear, to an unwary researcher, to contain bubbles.