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Stagnating Life Expectancies and Future Prospects in an Age of Uncertainty
Author(s) -
Denney Justin T.,
McNown Robert,
Rogers Richard G.,
Doubilet Steven
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
social science quarterly
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.482
H-Index - 90
eISSN - 1540-6237
pISSN - 0038-4941
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2012.00930.x
Subject(s) - life expectancy , demography , expectancy theory , demographic economics , gerontology , psychology , economic growth , development economics , economics , medicine , population , sociology , social psychology
Objective This article provides a timely assessment of U.S. life expectancy given recent stalls in the growth of length of life, the continuing drop in international rankings of life expectancy for the United States, and a period of growing social and economic insecurity. Methods Time‐series analysis is used on over 70 years of data from the Human Mortality Database to forecast future life expectancy to the year 2055. Results The results show limited improvements in U.S. life expectancy at birth, less than three years on average, for both men and women. Conclusions Even in uncertain times, it is important to look forward in preparing for the needs of future populations. The results presented here underscore the relevance of policy and health initiatives aimed at improving the nation's health and reveal important insight into possible limits to mortality improvement over the next five decades.