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Exile Politics and R epublican P arty Affiliation: The Case of C uban A mericans in M iami*
Author(s) -
Girard Chris,
Grenier Guillermo J.,
Gladwin Hugh
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
social science quarterly
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.482
H-Index - 90
eISSN - 1540-6237
pISSN - 0038-4941
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2011.00835.x
Subject(s) - politics , preference , logistic regression , demographic economics , test (biology) , political science , demography , sociology , economics , mathematics , law , statistics , microeconomics , paleontology , biology
Objectives We test the hypothesis that exile politics—measured by support for anti‐ C astro policies—contribute to the overwhelming preference for the R epublican P arty among S outh F lorida's C uban A mericans. Methods Logistic regression is used to analyze six surveys conducted in S outh F lorida between 1995 and D ecember 2008. Results Among C uban A mericans in M iami‐ D ade C ounty, measures of exile politics account for a recent downward shift in R epublican registration, as well as for much of the variation in R epublican registration by race and age. Also, measures of exile politics partly explain differences between C ubans and non‐ C ubans with regard to partisan preference. Conclusion Although some scholars argue that domestic issues have taken a back seat in guiding party preferences for M iami's C ubans, a decline in support for anti‐ C astro policies appears to have created a greater opening for domestic concerns in the 2008 election cycle.