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How Rules Matter: Electoral Reform in Taiwan *
Author(s) -
Stockton Hans
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
social science quarterly
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.482
H-Index - 90
eISSN - 1540-6237
pISSN - 0038-4941
DOI - 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2010.00679.x
Subject(s) - legislature , electoral reform , general election , electoral system , political science , test (biology) , regionalism (politics) , representation (politics) , proportionality (law) , nationalism , proportional representation , economics , political economy , public administration , law , politics , democracy , paleontology , biology
Objectives. This article is a test of general electoral theory in the case of Taiwan's 2008, postreform legislative election. In light of Taiwan's electoral reform, I test several hypotheses related to choice in electoral design and winning conditions, effective number of parties, proportionality, and regionalism. Methods. I run a simulation of the new rules and districting using the previous (2004) election results and compare this to the actual results. By comparing simulated and actual outcomes, I can compare theoretically‐driven, a priori expectations with election outcomes. Results. Primary findings are that a dominant seat share for the Nationalist Party, decline in third‐party representation, and disproportionality were largely predicated on the transition to a majoritarian system. Conclusion. General electoral theory holds robust predictive power in the case of Taiwan.